"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn)
08/17/2015 at 10:00 • Filed to: None
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"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn)
08/17/2015 at 10:00 • Filed to: None | 2
| 11 |
I’m a fan of classic cars. But when they were built, they were utilitarian transport vehicles, daily drivers, and, like all cars, were quickly superseded by the next year’s models. But some have become cultural icons, such that they have been lovingly restored and maintained 60 years (or more) after their manufacture. But what about the cars of 2015? Are there any everyday cars (not supercars) that will become part of our culture and sought after, restored, and maintained in 2075? Or will all modern cars be relegated to the crusher of history?
Where will the next ‘57 Chevy come from?
RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 10:08 |
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I think the odds of there being a one year only “That’s IT!” iconic car go down substantially with longer product life cycles and less incidence of year-to-year model re-fluffing. At least for ordinary commuter models. For the ‘50s, you’re also dealing with a situation in which a highly experimental styling exercise could be thrown at the public one year to sink or swim, and then have its influence carried on to the next year or thrown out entirely. With anything close to similar numbers of models offered up by prominent manufacturers, and probably double the *obvious* trim level distinctions, the difference is huge. A five year product cycle with one basic look vs. a one-year product cycle with multiple trim levels gives one tenth the odds of “striking gold” even before you consider greater freedom “back in the day” to experiment financially and fewer restraints in terms of pedestrian safety, etc.
Do I think there will be an iconic everyman’s car of our generation with even a fraction of that cachet? I’m hopeful, but must remain *extremely* skeptical.
Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell.
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 10:15 |
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I think when we get to that point keeping these things running will be a hell of a challenge. I tackled a modernish car that had only sat for 8 months and the entire electrical system was a mess (it worked fine when parked and I mean that seriously not in the craigslist way). Finding those little sensors and stuff working is going to be an utter nightmare. More so than rebuilding a carb or finding a machine shop that’ll replace valve seats.
davedave1111
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 10:17 |
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Driving a 26yo nearly mint-condition Camry around, I’ve been amazed how much affection and interest it gets. My insurance company think it’s a classic, but I was rather skeptical. In fact, though, the lesson is that even a pretty boring, fairly normal Toyota is classic enough after 25 years to be worth preserving if it’s in good condition.
crowmolly
> RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
08/17/2015 at 10:17 |
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I agree. Couple that with the fact that there’s a very large collector/historic industry leaving demand for a cool car to be spread over a huge supply.
There won’t be another ‘57. Collectible stuff, sure. But I doubt some everyman car will get as big of a following.
G_Body_Man: Sponsored by the number 3
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 10:19 |
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Hellcat, GT500, GT350R, Ferrari 458 speciale, Viper, C7, FR-S, STI, EVO, SS, Flex Ecoboost, etc.
Snuze: Needs another Swede
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 10:19 |
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I think trying to guess todays cars is a huge crap shoot, but a few that come to mind are every Chrysler HEMI product, Corvettes, “pony cars” (used loosely) to include Camaros, Mustangs, Genesis, 370Z/G37. You’ll also see Chrysler 300’s, Taurus SHOs, oddly the Chevy SS, and maybe V6 Camarys and Accords. I think you’ll also see hot hatches like Ford’s ST cars, maybe some Sonics, occasional Veloster turbo, Golfs, etc. And I think the Toyobaru twins will become collectibles one day.
This is a tough exercise because it’s hard to gauge why people buy, restore, and maintain certain cars. Usually it’s a childhood experience with it (hence why I think you may see 300’s, Taurus, V6 Accords/Camarys) or it was the car you wanted when you turned 16 and couldn’t afford (hence the “pony cars”, hot hatches, Toyobaru, etc.). But I think the big challenge is “planned obsolescence” - something that didn’t exist until probably the 70’s or 80’s. These cars are going to be more difficult to keep and maintain as time goes on. Also, product life cycles are shorter due to increasing emissions requirements. Every small block chevy ever uses the same bearings, same gaskets, same oil filter, etc. There are still millions on the road, as well as in marine use, etc. Conversely, the Family 0 1.4L in the Cruze has already been superceded with a new engine, and I don’t think it’s related, and thats only after 4 model years.
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RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
> crowmolly
08/17/2015 at 10:37 |
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I think the highest bar to which modern cars can aspire is if something everyman gets traction in a spectactular way in the market, something like the first-gen Mustang. Something that rattles the paradigms, and for which being iconic isn’t tied to the flash in the pan of one model year - for which a slightly longer model cycle is an asset. I don’t think the first-gen Mustang is an instant condensation of an era (or year) the same way a ‘57 is, but it does carry something of a “this is the 60s” campaign badge if not a citation for bravery.
It’s worth noting a large part of its success was from young boomers. The ‘57 might have been cemented more as “Dad”’s car. I don’t see significant unity of a generation around any particular models happening many times since the 60s, other than the unity of necessity - ‘80s Camry and the like. I can see some hipsterism around the 80s Yotes forming as a result, but ‘86 Camry =/= ‘57 Chevy. Not as an icon (at least not the same kind), not as valued, not something that says affordable elegance the same way, nor *captures a dream*.
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crowmolly
> RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
08/17/2015 at 10:43 |
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I wonder if the slow deterioration of the street rod scene is more evidence for your theory.
Way back when a ‘32 Ford was the hot thing to have- but those guys are now in their 70s-80s.
People in their 30s, as an example, could be in to American Muscle, sport trucks, Japanese tuning, etc. Much bigger of a net.
Or look at the power plant of choice. The 350 Chevy was it (or a 302 Ford if you were a purist) for a very long time. Now there are plenty of choices, but no one go-to.
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RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
> crowmolly
08/17/2015 at 10:51 |
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I also think we’re about at the point of, if not population decay, certainly demographic shift. As long as there were 4+ grandkids who might want Gramps’ ‘57, and 2+ kids who might want Dad’s ‘66 notchback, there was a certain in-built demand. With some long term trends toward a higher percentage first and second-gen immigrant and variation in repopulation rates, the nostalgic cars that people are going to want in future become a lot harder to predict.
BigBlock440
> crowmolly
08/17/2015 at 10:59 |
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If anything, I think the PT Cruiser or HHR will be the ones. Something with distinct styling. Who knows what tastes people will have in 30 years, and I’d expect if one car would do it, it would be one that’s unique.
Maybe a Charger would work too as that’s also pretty distinctive and is somewhat more desirable anyway.
camaroboy68ss
> ttyymmnn
08/17/2015 at 11:52 |
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That’s a tough call, I think you will see the tuner scene age like hot rods of the 50s. The “kids” today will grow up and age. You’ll end up having “traditional” tuner builds likes here are currently traditional hot rod builds. As far as an iconic car I think in terms of american cars, the pint cars and viper/corvette will be the standouts.